With just 72 hours, will Maharashtra be able to avoid President’s rule?

The results of the Maharashtra Assembly election will be out on November 23 with the clock ticking for parties to act fast and avoid the kicking in of President’s rule in the state. The term of the present Assembly expires on November 26, and there will be just 72 hours for the parties to form the government. Even in the case that one of the blocs — the Mahayuti or Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi — gets a clear mandate, unanimity over the chief minister’s post could be crucial.
Maharashtra is no stranger to President’s rule after Assembly elections. It saw brief periods of President’s rule after the 2019 and 2014 polls.
Some exit polls are predicting a hung Assembly though. While most exit polls predict a victory for the Mahayuti alliance, three suggest that neither the Mahayuti nor the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) would secure a decisive majority to form the next government in Maharashtra.
Any party or alliance needs to bag 145 seats in the 288-member Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha to stake claim to form the government.
With the results declared on Saturday, November 23, the contesting parties will just have 72 hours (3 days) till November 26, when Maharashtra’s 14th Vidhan Sabha completes its five-year term.
Four major exit polls, C-Voter, P-Marq, Dainik Bhaskar, and Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra, suggest that neither the Mahayuti nor the MVA is likely to secure a clear majority, indicating the possibility of a hung Assembly.
The C-Voter survey said the Mahayuti is likely to win 112 of 288 Assembly seats in Maharashtra, while the opposition MVA may end up with 104 and 61 other seats too close to call.
If this situation arises, it causes a concern about the stability and continuity of governance in Maharashtra.
In a hung Assembly, the formation of a government often involves complex negotiations, bargaining, and potential alliances with smaller parties or independent candidates.
These negotiations and bargaining processes often take considerable time, sometimes days, weeks, or even months.
A majority for either alliance might not necessarily end up resolving the political race against time. There’s another catch.
Even if one of the alliances, MVA or the Mahayuti, crosses the 145-seat mark or secures external support to do so, the next hurdle will be agreeing on who becomes the chief minister.
In the MVA, the race for the CM’s post has been heating up for a while, with half a dozen contenders vying for the role. Uddhav Thackeray remains a strong contender.
Meanwhile, in the Mahayuti, Eknath Shinde, the presumed CM face, sees stiff competition from Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis now.
Though Shinde has projected himself as a strong contender on the back of his successful Ladki Bahin Yojana, Fadnavis has led with his call for consolidation of Hindu votes with the ‘Batenge toh Katenge’ call.
In India, the formation of a government is typically completed before the tenure of the outgoing government or the Assembly ends to ensure continuity in governance and avoid a power vacuum.
The tenure of a State Legislative Assembly, according to Article 172 of the Constitution, is five years from the date of its first sitting, unless dissolved earlier.
Given the current scenario, if neither the BJP-led Mahayuti nor the Congress-led MVA is able to form the government within 72 hours, Maharashtra may see President’s rule, based on the recommendations of the Governor of the state.
Under Article 356 of the Indian Constitution, the President can impose President’s rule in a state if the government of that state cannot be carried on in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution. This provision is often invoked when there is a breakdown of the constitutional machinery in the state, which could be the case if no stable government can be formed.
After the imposition of the President’s rule, a state is directly administered by the Union government, which rules through the Governor, who acts as the head of the state’s administration.
Just a few months back in March, the Election Commission advanced the date of counting of votes for Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim assembly polls by two days. The poll body had cited the ‘cessation of the terms of the respective Assemblies’.
If the polls result on Saturday show a hung Assembly in Maharashtra, and the contesting parties fail to cement an alliance to cross the 145 mark in the 288-member house, a period of President’s rule cannot be ruled out.
If that happens, this would be the fourth time the state will see President’s rule, since Maharashtra was reorganised from the older Bombay state.
Maharashtra, in fact, saw President’s rule in the recent past.
In 2019, following the Assembly elections, the state was placed under President’s rule for 11 days after no party could form a government. Pre-poll allies, the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena, could not agree on a CM face and ministerial berths.
The following period saw a brief 80-hour stint by Devendra Fadnavis as Chief Minister and Ajit Pawar as Deputy Chief Minister, before they resigned. Eventually, a new coalition emerged with the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, NCP, and Congress forming the MVA.
Before 2019, Maharashtra came under President’s Rule in 2014 for a month. The first time was way back in 1980.
The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election saw a fierce contest between the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition MVA and there are chances of a hung Assembly. Even in the case of an alliance winning a clear majority, bickering over the chief minister’s post might prevent it from staking claim to form the government. With all these, parties in Maharashtra will have just 72 hours to keep the state from another President’s rule.